The toppling of the democratically-elected president of Niger on July 26 is jeopardizing U.S. counterterrorism missions in much of Africa and raising questions about America’s ability to carry out military operations in that region.
The U.S. and France have condemned the military’s power grab, led by Abdourahamane Tchiani, Niger’s new self-proclaimed leader. A group of West African nations on July 30 imposed sanctions and even threatened force if President Mohammad Bazoum is not restored to power.
Yet there are no signs that the military junta that seized control is backing down, and concerns have grown that Russia might try to take advantage of the upheaval.
“If Western operations are significantly impacted by this, it’s going to be bad for the Nigerien people,” retired Army Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, who led U.S. Africa Command from 2019-2022, told Air & Space Forces Magazine. “It’s going to be bad for the region. It’s going to be bad for Europe before it’s bad for America, but it’s going to be bad for everybody.”
For now, the U.S. has halted security cooperation with Niger while American personnel are largely staying on their bases, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder told reporters Aug 1.
“We continue to stay in contact with the Niger military, but in terms of training, for example, those types of things, that’s been suspended,” said Ryder, who declined to say whether U.S. drone operations had stopped.
Taking a wait-and-see approach, the Biden administration has not officially declared the removal of Bazoum a coup, which would require the U.S. to cut off military assistance under U.S. law, undermining efforts to combat terrorism in the area. The U.S. says it still holds out hope that Bazoum could be restored to power and U.S. officials and analysts said the situation on the ground is still unfolding.
“Currently, the position of Gen. Tchiani is fragile because he is torn between different political and military actors within the CNSP itself,” said Tatiana Smirnova, an expert on Niger at the University of Quebec in Montreal, referring to the junta’s formal name, the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland.
The U.S. has roughly 1,100 troops in Niger, where the U.S. military operates two air bases. That has enabled the U.S. to fly drones, such as Air Force MQ-9s, to gather intelligence on militant groups in the region, including al-Qaeda, ISIS affiliates, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a terrorist group active in Niger and other parts of West Africa. In 2017, four American service members were killed while hunting for an ISIS leader.
“We don’t want this to be something like Afghanistan,” an Air Force officer serving in Niger told Air & Space Forces Magazine in 2022.
John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, told reporters Aug. 1 that “there’s no indication that Russia was behind this” despite Russian flags being seen being displayed in Niger’s capital.
But Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner group Wagner, hailed the coup in a Telegram message and suggested his troops would help Niger maintain order.
“The Niger coup is condemnable enough in its own right, but other West African states and Western governments should be particularly worried given the recent history of regime change in the violence-plagued Sahel,” wrote James Barnett, a Hudson Institute research fellow who is based in Lagos, Nigeria. “In both Mali and Burkina Faso, coups in 2021 and 2022, respectively, were followed by a further rise in jihadist violence, geopolitical spats between the juntas and their traditional Western security partners, and, in the case of Mali, the arrival of the Wagner Group.”
Smirnova said there may not be overwhelming pro-Russian support among the general public, but noted that anti-Western sentiment runs strong while there is “general fatigue” with the current government among the population.
“Russian flags in the streets of Niamey do not necessarily mean that there are pro-Russian sentiments in the country, while anti-Western sentiments have been persisting for some time already,” Smirnova told Air & Space Forces Magazine.
“People are tired of not-equitable distribution of resources,” she added. “All that may explain why so many political actors do not condemn the coup now.”
France, Italy, and other European countries have moved to evacuate their citizens, a step the U.S. had not yet taken. On Aug. 2, the U.S. State Department announced the partial evacuation of U.S. government personnel and their family members. But for now, the U.S. military is staying.
“There are no changes to the U.S. military force posture in Niger during the Department of State-led ordered departure,” Ryder said in an Aug. 3 statement. “The Department of State has not requested DOD personnel or equipment as part of the ordered departure. We continue to monitor this fluid and evolving situation and reiterate our focus on a diplomatic solution.”
As yet, a diplomatic solution remains elusive.
“Military coups are deeply ingrained in their history there, so I think it was always not far beneath the surface,” said Townsend. “I’m very disappointed, but I’m not shocked by what happened in Niger.”
Editor’s note: this article was updated on Aug. 3 with additional comments from Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder.