The Weekly Standard’s Michael Goldfarb believes the Russian PAK FA (prototype flown last month) is just that, citing a new Air Power Australia analysis by Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon. The defense analysts say “available evidence” shows a “mature production PAK FA” could compete with the F-22 in very low observable performance and “will outperform” it “aerodynamically and kinematically.” That means, they say, the PAK FA renders all legacy US fighter aircraft and the F-35, upon which the Pentagon has staked the future of US airpower, “strategically irrelevant and non viable after the PAK FA achieves IOC in 2015.” Goldfarb posits: “If the Russians had flown the PAK FA nine months ago, you have to think Congress would have rolled the White House to keep the F-22 line open, which it almost did anyway.” (Both Goldfarb’s article and the APA analysis are worth noting.)
The rate of building B-21 bombers would speed up if the fiscal 2026 defense budget passes. But it remains unclear how much capacity would be added, and whether the Air Force would simply build the bombers faster, or buy more.